本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛很早就想写一点关于mutual fund的东西，原因是看了一篇题为“Monkey can beat your mutual fund manager”的文章。据说有人做实验，让一些股票投资专家进行投资比赛，结果胜出的是比赛方的参照组合：所谓参照组合是让人掷飞镖随机选出的股票组成的。文章作者的观点是千万不要相信任何人who says he can beat the market. 对此我深为赞同。在我看来寻找一个好的mutual fund，根本是无意义的事。
有些人要说mutual fund manager都是专家，更何况你看XX fund连续三年回报率20%以上，难道这不说明这是一个好fund？其实任何投资股票或mutual fund的人都知道股票或mutual fund的历史数据只能代表历史，不能保证将来。如果你去问那个manager：“你们过去业绩这么好，今后如何？”他肯定会告诉你他的fund的表现会很稳定而且今后几年也会超过整个市场的表现。但如果你追问一句：“Can you guarantee that?”我敢说他100%会王顾左右而言，不会正面回答。试想如果他能保证超过市场平均值，不要说多，1%或2%就行了，他何不自己去投资，这样来钱要比他做mutual fund manager快多了。他为什么不去呢？因为他没有把握，所以他只敢拿别人的钱去投资，而不敢那自己的钱去冒险。你看他连自己都不相信，却让别人相信他能beat the market，这不是很可笑吗？
所以说根本就无所谓好的 或不好的fund ，一切只不过是随机游戏而已，如果你买的fund比大市好，也只不过说明这次运气不错。如果一定要定义的话，我认为同类型的 funds，managerment fee越低的越好。如果你不再想着什么超过大市，那我推荐index fund，或者ETF股票， 至少你可以keep with the market。
NOT REAL ESTATE! But rather, MBS.
-jeffrey815(Smartiecat);
2004-7-30(#1823829@0)
Please 扫扫盲吧，What is MBS Funds? Thanks.
-cherry126(尚影);
2004-7-30(#1823937@0)
There is nothing called Real Estate fund. There are only funds which invest in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). MBS can be separated into pass throughs and CMOs. CMOs can be further divided into classes
-jeffrey815(Smartiecat);
2004-7-30{278}(#1824011@0)
and tranches which fit individual investor's need.
MBS means mortgages that are securitized.
MBS is not a very simple fixed income class of products. For the general public, just know that this kind of fund invest in mortgages (in securitized form), but not real estate.
给你找了一个Real Estate的Mutual Fund在这里，CIBC Canadian Real Estate Fund。
-jianghongca(慎独);
2004-7-30(#1824286@0)
This is also misleading too! For those who know nothing about the financial market, your argument may be OK for them. But ...
-canada123(running 阿甘);
2004-7-30{345}(#1823945@0)
You are assuming that the market is efficient and nobody can constantly beat the market. This is not true. W. Buffet and his many colleagues(or followers) have consistantly beat the market in the long run. It can not be explained by the efficient market theory.
I suggest people read somebook about W. Buffet. Those books are really helpful.
Mary Buffet, the ex-daughter-in-law of W. Buffet, wrote a book. The book is very easy to read, and it is good book for beginner. Timthy Vick also wrotes severy books. The following links has some references.
-canada123(running 阿甘);
2004-8-3{90}(#1827230@0)